Change in this parameter is likely to be a much more sensitive measure of the presence of increasing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection than flawed PCR testing without modifications. Essentially a second wave is the result of you taking your foot of the pedal. In his words, “ It is so transmissible, and it is so widespread throughout the world, that even if our infections get well controlled and go down dramatically during the summer, there is virtually no chance it will be eradicated ." Epidemic outbreaks These papers showed this pre-immunity is geographically widespread and prevalent within each population studied, but it was only the Mateus paper that gave us the understanding as to why and how. Under present parameters, even accepting an unlikely 0.1% False Positive rate and a prevalence of 0.1%, more than half of the positives are likely to be false, potentially all of them. It should be noted that illness, hospitalisations and deaths have not reversed in any clear and sustained manner. Gniazdowski et al (2020) studied 161 positive PCR test samples with a Ct value below 23 that yielded 91.5% of virus isolates, and the study showed a strong correlation between recovery of SARS-CoV-2 infectious virus on cell culture and Ct values. It is important to appreciate that much of the early serological studies were conducted on hospitalised patients who, by definition, are the most ill cohort. Herd immunity thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 estimated from unfolding epidemics. (ONS prevalence survey Aug 14th 2020). Enforcement of this policy is at the discretion of this websites administrators. New Eng. Current mass testing using the PCR test is inappropriate in its current form. The past four years data were used for comparison purposes and to calculate upper and lower control limits (based on two standard deviations). The most recent paper by Mateus et al (2020) was published in the journal Science in August and supports the previous findings of Le Bert et al (2020). Change in this parameter is likely to be a much more sensitive measure of the presence of increasing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection than flawed PCR testing without modifications. Presence of SARS-CoV-2 reactive T cells in COVID-19 patients and healthy donors. They all have striking sequence similarity to the new coronavirus. We do not know exactly what the false positive rate is, but it is widely believed to be greater than the actual, remaining prevalence of the virus (Heneghan, 2020), which is around 1:2000, or 0.05%. In this case the first major peak was seen in Saudi Arabia with a second peak some months later in the Republic of Korea. Lee & Raszka (2020). What it is very poor at, however, is what is being asked of it now, namely estimating the percentage of people who are currently infectious in the community. To do that, they exploit as ‘grappling hooks’ receptors on the outside of those cells – in the case of the new virus, and at high speed, scientists determined it is an enzyme called ACE2. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.02090.pdf, Gniazdowski V, Morris P, Wohl S et al. We are of the view that a continued focus primarily on the virus flows from responding to what we are concerned is a seriously flawed transmission model. This is crucial to understanding where we are with respect to the epidemic in the UK and the potential for a second wave of infections. The Spectator, July 20 2020. Instead, cellular memory enables very rapid re-generation of antibodies upon re-encounter with the antigen, if that is required to defend the host. Science. Aguas, 2020). (2020). Doi 10.1016/j.meegid.2020.104485, Wood (2020). The COVID-19 pandemic has undoubtedly allowed for some very positive and rapid changes within NHS pathways, protocols and services which should be maintained. However, the observation that, for example, only 17% of Londoners have antibodies is not the same as saying only 17% have been infected (though the media often wrongly assumes it does). In a study of 23 people who survived SARS in 2003, every single one had memory T-cells that recognised the SARS virus 17 years later (Le Bert et al, 2020). Wu et al (2020) Association between ABO blood groups and COVID-19 infection, severity and demise: A systematic review and meta-analysis. So what is happening in terms of second wave concerns in France and Spain? Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the [U.S.] National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, believes the second wave of coronavirus infections is "inevitable." (2020). Obviously, and perhaps it has already happened, there is the potential for emerging influenza to complicate the picture. Viral evidence historically tells us that you don’t generally get infected by the exact same virus twice, certainly not within a short period of time. It is not efficient nor required for immunity to maintain high levels of antibodies to everything to which you are immune. Immunity 52(6), 971-77. Did COVID-19 infections decline before UK lockdown? Over the last three months since lockdown measures started easing on the May 10th there has been no increase in weekly deaths. Since June 26th, the number of weekly deaths has now fallen so it is not only below the weekly average but has regularly dropped below the lower control limit, showing that we are now at the lowest number of weekly deaths recorded in many years. Current evidence allows for a greatly improved understanding of positive infectious patients and using the evidence to improve measurements and understanding can lead to sensitive measurements of active cases to give a more accurate warning of escalating cases and potential issues and outbreaks. Instead, it is likely there will be local, small and self-limiting mini-outbreaks as areas previously unexposed come into contact with the virus. There are very good reasons to believe that the population of the UK and of many heavily infected countries have arrived at a position where the prevalence of the virus is low and probably falling further because the reproduction number (R) has been below 1 for several months. Another wave of coronavirus will likely hit the US in the fall. Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates. “Is it flu or is it COVID-19?” is a question easily answered. Long et al (2020) find that almost half of previously infected individuals are no longer seropositive a few months later. The PCR test for the virus is good enough to confirm infection in someone with symptoms. Theel et al (2020). As the rate of hospitalisations, ICU utilisation and the daily death rate from COVID-19 all decayed steadily, it appears that several but not all countries have greatly expanded their testing capacity in the broader population of people who are not showing any symptoms of infection. New UCL Paper on Contact Tracing Gulls Credulous Journalist, Another Computer Simulation, Another Alarmist Prediction. To investigate this possibility, scientists developed models of different intervention scenarios and found that the likelihood of an additional round of illness and death by COVID-19 increased significantly when interventions to limit the spread of disease were relaxed. We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent. German bill would allow children to change name, legal gender without parents’ consent, The Weaponization Of The Term “Far Right”, Digital ID Scheme Shot Down by Swiss Voters Over Data Privacy Concerns, Israel, Cyprus, Greece to Link Power Grids to EU via Undersea Cable, Fire at OVH Servers Goes Up In Smoke Leaving Part of French Web Knocked Out, Urgent Open Letter From Doctors, Scientists to European Medicines Agency Re. Consequently, two different and independent analytical approaches provide estimates that are at least in the same range for total population having been infected (overlapping at approximately 20%), and this is crucial in the argument put forward here. Find out what infectious disease experts say and how dangerous a second wave could be. These papers showed this pre-immunity is geographically widespread and prevalent within each population studied, but it was only the Mateus paper that gave us the understanding as to why and how. Gallais, (2020). That is a fortunate finding indeed, and goes some way in explaining why children have been relatively spared. If 7% is the mean for UK, then perhaps 14-21% of the population has actually been infected (which would imply, very approximately, 9-14 million people infected). A complete event of the pandemic But even here, it is important to recall what it is that the PCR test measures, and it is simply the presence of partial RNA sequences present in the intact virus. We are told that only seven per cent of the population have antibodies to the virus, and it is implied that this represents the proportion of the population who have so far been infected. « Reply #13 on: Sep 11, 2020, 02:23:49 PM » As likely as Govt appointed statisticians are told to make it, after politicians get their instructions from the W.H.O. While published data on deaths ‘with’ COVID-19 is dependent on testing regimes and therefore liable to inaccuracy due to missing information – for example undetected asymptomatic patients – the data does allow a sound approximation of the flow of the outbreak. Numerous estimates have been made of the infection fatality ratio (IFR) for this new virus. This is the basis of all the second wave fears we hear about. They are distinct from the others in the population who do not have these T-cell responses and are therefore susceptible to a new virus. The evidence presented in this paper indicates that there should be no expectation of a large scale ‘second wave’ with smaller localised outbreaks when the virus contacts pockets of previously uninfected populations. Did COVID-19 infections decline before UK lockdown? Daily deaths from and with COVID-19 have almost ceased, having fallen over 99% from peak. The impact of host resistance on cumulative mortality and the threshold of herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2. CapeTalk's Africa Melane poses the question to Professor Alex van den Heever, from the Wits School Of Governance. Replying to Christopher Snowdon – Again! In limited studies to date, many researchers have shown that some subjects remain PCR-positive long after the ability to culture virus from swabs has disappeared. Gallais (2020) shows that none of the familial contacts of those testing positive to SARS-CoV-2 went onto to develop antibodies. Interestingly, this question of what percentage of the population have been infected can be approached using a different methodology. If this is done, almost all the false positives will be removed. But afterwards if man continue to follow the path of misdeeds once again, then there are chances of coming of 2nd wave which is likely of more dangerous than first. They now recommend not testing people with no symptoms who are not contacts in a contact-tracing activity. It is now established that at least 30% of our population already had immunological recognition of this new virus, before it even arrived (Le Bert et al, 2020; Braun et al, 2020; Grifoni et al, 2020). Wu et al (2020) Association between ABO blood groups and COVID-19 infection, severity and demise: A systematic review and meta-analysis. How many Non-COVID Patients are Being Neglected? But even here, it is important to recall what it is that the PCR test measures, and it is simply the presence of partial RNA sequences present in the intact virus. All the numbers monitored carefully fall like this, too: the numbers being hospitalised, numbers in hospital, number in intensive care – all are falling in synchrony from the April peak. To do that, they exploit as ‘grappling hooks’ receptors on the outside of those cells – in the case of the new virus, and at high speed, scientists determined it is an enzyme called ACE2. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.02475.pdf. Lingappan et al (2020). We now know that children, especially young children, appear harder to infect and/or they are less affected by the virus. Doi 10.1038/s41586-020-2550-z. Heneghan (2020). Consequently, it is impossible for the positives to be much other than false. Taking this into account it is, in total, at least 35%, and likely to be significantly more of the population who are resistant or immune to the virus, meaning that they will neither get ill nor participate significantly in viral transmission (Lee, 2020). A reasonable hypothesis is that the lower intensity of immunological challenges tends to rely less on the generation of antibodies and more on innate and cellular responses. Braun, et al. The lower the real initial susceptibility, the more secure we are in our contention that a herd immunity threshold (HIT) has been reached. So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them. The result of continuing to use this test alone on a massive widescale screening program is inevitably to generate a high proportion of false positives. That would have resulted in very many more deaths than have been measured. Targets of T Cell Responses to SARS-CoV-2Coronavirus in Humans with COVID-19Disease and Unexposed Individuals. While that is a fair challenge, it would be unreasonable to dismiss it and assume is has no relevance. In a paper published this month, which was co-authored by Yeadon and two of his colleagues, “How Likely is a Second Wave?”, the scientists write: “It has widely been observed that in all heavily infected countries in Europe and several of the US states likewise, that the shape of the daily deaths vs. time curves is similar to ours in the UK. Doi 10.1016/j.meegid.2020.104485, Wood (2020). If I Can Survive Four Days in a Corona Cauldron, Maybe Everyone Should Get Back to Work, Covid, Hyper-Medicalisation and Virus Interference. Pediatrics, e2020004879 DOI: 10.1542/peds.2020-004879. We are making such material available to our readers under the provisions of “fair use” in an effort to advance a better understanding of political, health, economic and social issues. There is no biological principle that leads us to expect a second wave based on the accumulation of data over the past six months. We understand the term ‘herd immunity’ can raise hackles in some quarters of the media. J Med. Detection of SARS-CoV-2-Specific Humoral and Cellular Immunity in COVID-19 Convalescent Individuals. This paper outlines the evidence and data we have gathered to support a change in focus to further expedite the return of both primary and secondary care to full capacity. Several countries have had a resurgence … Specifically, careful examination of the weekly all-causes mortality data in France is completely clear. Am. It may be of relevance to note that, on August 24th, the US CDC changed its guidance on when PCR testing is appropriate. Are we over the peak of the second wave? Other, theoretical epidemiological studies show that, with the extent of prior immunity that we can now reasonably assume to be the case, only 15-25% of the population being infected is sufficient to bring the spread of the virus to a halt (Lourenco, 2020; Gomez et al, 2020). They all have striking sequence similarity to the new coronavirus. The Role of Antibody Testing for SARS-CoV-2: Is There One? Heneghan (2020). We thank you for all your support and your considerations … (TLB). It has widely been observed that in all heavily infected countries in Europe and several of the US states likewise, that the shape of the daily deaths vs. time curves is similar to ours in the UK. How Likely Is A Second Wave – And Can It Be Prevented? The most susceptible were those already elderly and/or ill, some very ill, and so we saw very high death rates initially. If you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes other than “fair use” you must request permission from the copyright owner. Doi 10.1038/s41586-020-2550-z. This is because there are factors other than T-cell mechanisms which alter a person’s susceptibility to the virus. Mateus, by using parts of these endemic coronaviruses which also exist within COVID-19 confirmed this. Paul Kirkham, Professor of cell Biology and Head of Respiratory Disease Research Group at Wolverhampton University, Dr Mike Yeadon, former CSO and VP, Allergy and Respiratory Research Head with Pfizer Global R&D and co-Founder of Ziarco Pharma Ltd. Aguas, et al (2020). There are practical alternatives to mass testing. medRxiv 2020.08.05.20168963; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.05.20168963, https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/find/master, https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/epidemiological-update-middle-east-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-mers-cov-4, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_outbreak, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002%E2%80%932004_SARS_outbreak, https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-epidemic-curve-in-Hong-Kong-2003-by-infection-cluster_fig1_8200905, https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Epidemic-curve-of-cases-of-severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-by-date-of-onset-November_fig1_8501177, https://science.sciencemag.org/content/303/5664/1666, https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/, https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-tests, https://www.cebm.net/study/covid-19-testing-and-correlation-with-infectious-virus-cycle-thresholds-and-analytical-sensitivity/, The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate, and for this we are grateful and excited! Detection of SARS-CoV-2-Specific Humoral and Cellular Immunity in COVID-19 Convalescent Individuals. Has the Evidence of Asymptomatic Spread of COVID-19 been Significantly Overstated? As for the prospect of a second wave on its way, Bogoch said he agrees it will very likely arrive in Canada in the fall. The Year the NHS Failed the People of Britain. Alternatively, innate and cellular memory responses can be sufficient. In limited studies to date, many researchers have shown that some subjects remain PCR-positive long after the ability to culture virus from swabs has disappeared. Another useful measure of disease impact is the Adult Critical Care Bed Occupancy, which showed a peak in bed demand between April 7th and 23rd with the number of patients occupying critical care beds significantly higher than our national baseline capacity. Chief Science Officer for Pfizer Says “Second Wave” Faked on False-Positive COVID Tests, “Pandemic Is Over. Obviously, and perhaps it has already happened, there is the potential for emerging influenza to complicate the picture. The Prime Minister has reportedly said he fears that a second wave of coronavirus infections could hit the UK within weeks. It is recommended that a greater focus be placed on evidence-based medicine rather than highly sensitive theoretical modelling based on assumptions and unknowns. Yet its profile and that of the UK’s is very similar. The problem of using any assay to conduct surveillance on a low prevalence virus with a PCR test has been widely discussed (Heneghan, 2020). Your email address will not be published. Understanding the age divide in COVID-19: why are children overwhelmingly spared? Science. TLB Staff Many of these curves are not just similar, but almost super imposable. Covid Vaccine Safety, Australian Health Minister in Critical Condition Just One Day After Covid Vaccine, Why Europe’s Left Wants A European Financial Superstate, COVID Vaccine Injury Report Numbers Grow, But Trends Remain Consistent, Number of Women in U.K. The past four years data were used for comparison purposes and to calculate upper and lower control limits (based on two standard deviations). What Percentage of the Population Has Been Infected? Instead, it is likely there will be local, small and self-limiting mini-outbreaks as areas previously unexposed come into contact with the virus.” 2020;369:m1808. A reasonable hypothesis is that the lower intensity of immunological challenges tends to rely less on the generation of antibodies and more on innate and cellular responses. How Culpable are the Chinese Authorities for the Global Pandemic? References. Analysed individually, each area followed a typical single event Gompertz curve. Mateus, by using parts of these endemic coronaviruses which also exist within COVID-19 confirmed this. Braun, et al. If 7% is the mean for UK, then perhaps 14-21% of the population has actually been infected (which would imply, very approximately, 9-14 million people infected). We are of the view that a continued focus primarily on the virus flows from responding to what we are concerned is a seriously flawed transmission model. Recent seroprevalence studies, which measure the proportion of the population displaying antibodies to the novel virus, are widely assumed to show the proportion of the population which has been infected. A Look Back at the UK’s COVID-19 Containment Strategy: Did We Get it Wrong and at What Cost? Infection , Genetics and Evolution. For example, calls to the NHS111 service captures all reports of what is termed ‘influenza-like illness’. But one senior expert has warned a second wave of coronavirus is likely. Immunity 52(6), 971-77. Based upon guidance from NHS England, our primary and secondary care service across the country are currently following protocols to limit access to care due to the dangers of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19) pandemic. Consequently, it is possible that most of the positives from mass testing are either false positives or ‘cold positives’ (fragments of real virus which are not intact and incapable of replication or of causing disease or infecting others) and therefore begs the question of whether mass testing of patients without symptoms is in fact helpful or misleading?
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